Macedonia experiences moderate growth in Q3
Macedonia's GDP grew at 0.2% year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter, thanks largely to a continued construction boom and inventory accumulation while final consumption contracted y/y and exports faltered.
IHS Global Insight says it does not expect much of a recovery in 2013, as the external economic environment will remain negative.
"The moderate turnaround of GDP on a y/y basis in Q3 took place despite the onset of a substantial contraction of private consumption on the end-use side and dismal performance by the industrial sector on the sector of origin. Part of the problem for Macedonian consumers in Q3 was likely to be the hike in food prices globally and domestically that pinched household budgets. However, gross fixed capital formation likely grew at a fairly good clip (it is not reported separately in the quarterly GDP publication) in Q3 judging from value added in construction. The increase in overall gross capital formation probably also reflects a boost in inventory accumulation as both external demand and domestic consumption faltered. Given the economic descent of Western Europe into in the second and third quarters of 2012, Macedonian growth has been seriously impacted. While in the global recession of 2009 the Macedonian economy fared better than many others in the Balkans, the current European recession has hit Macedonia much like it has the country's neighbouring economies. The prospects are not much better for 2013 as demand for Macedonian exports will continue to reflect a difficult external economic environment in Europe," IHS says.